Each week, The Glenn Team provide highlights from the weekly CP office meeting to provide a balanced overview of the Toronto and GTA markets and relevant issues affecting real estate markets. Meetings are overseen by Chestnut Park's CEO and Broker of Record, Chris Kapches, LLB, who provides weekly analysis and commentary. Additional input is provided by the CP Toronto office Realtors who give a day to day, real life perspective of the local markets.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Because TREB has continued it's weekly/mid-month stats fillabuster, Chris has created his own analysis method based on MLS data for the 416 only. As September progressed, there were more active sales and avgerage sale prices were up. As an example, b/w Sept. 22nd and 29th, the average sale price increased from about $782,000 to $809,000. Between August and September, sales volume also increased from 2480 to 2514 properties. That 2% increase coupled with an 11% increase in average sale price from August is the first time in 4 consecutive months that we've seen a positive variance in both categories.

Additionally, The Bank of Canada posted yet another increase in interest rates and though the press says that may be the last we'll see before 2018, Darlene Hanley of Hanley of Hanley Mortgage Group, says they're expecting at least one more before year's end. Couple that with the new proposed stress test which, will require those paying less than 20% down to qualify at a rate of 4.94% and one would expect that sale prices won't reach the bloated values seen in April; we're still about $160-170,000 off the pace from there.

So for the moment, we seem to be headed into a healthier market. However, CP Realtors working in the 416 are reporting high numbers at open houses and buyers feeling a need for more product, so at least in the 416, we're likely to continue to see market activity and sales numbers increase. Contrast that with the 905, where at least one Realtor representing a prime property had less than 4 showings in 4 weeks. The hope is that any increase in sales going into 2018 in both the 416 or 905 areas will be sustainable (in the 3-5% range) and not the 11-20% range that got us here.

BANKABLE RESULTS

In a report published by CIBC, economists are coroborating Chris' sentiments for a rebounding Toronto market, siting Toronto's sale prices increasing, economic growth rates of 4.5% and lower unemployment numbers. The report indicated that 90% of home buyers are earning between $58-108,000/yr. (classified "middle-class"), and about 75% of mortgage holders made downpayments of 10% or more. An analysis run by Chris from 2010 indicates that Toronto home owners have been prudent in their housing purchases given the relative increase in average sales prices since that time and the releatively consistent interest rates from that time to today. All of this would seem to corelate with the data coming from CIBC. 

RBC economists however, feel that Toronto will follow Vancouver's market recovery, which only recently posted year over year gains of 22%. However Chris was quick to point out that those gains were seen before further increases in bank rates. That kind of growth would be reminiscent of April's gains which Chris called "a terrible period and not something we want to experience again". 

Have a differing perspective on the market? We'd love to hear from you! Feel free to comment below or send us an email at theglennteam@chestnutpark.com

Each week, we are bringing you highlights from the weekly CP meeting. We present analysis of the Toronto and GTA markets from the perspective of Chestnut Park's CEO and Broker of Record, Chris Kapches, LLB and the CP Toronto office staff.

NO NEW TREB DATA

As we've yet to get TREB's weekly or mid-month stats for September there isn't much to discuss in terms of stats. Anecdotally however, last week saw both bully and multiple offer situations from at least a few realtors in the office. The National Bank of Canada seems to agree. It came out with a report said that The ratio of Toronto house listings compared with monthly sales has moved back into long-term balance, limiting the potential for significant further price corrections in the region. The report (published early September) goes on to indicate that the ratio of listings to sales were finally in balance and had been for some time, comapred to the April market highs which clearly favoured sellers. This report gives more credence to what CP agents seems to be experiencing. More information on that report here. Once the mid-month data comes in, we'll have a better indication of exactly where the market is. Chris feels we have enough data to indicate that we've hit the bottom of the market lows. 

HOUSING SHORTAGE

The Toronto Star reported that Mayor Tory and the Minister of Housing announced that it's moving forward on creating 2000 market-rent and affordable rental housing units. Based around surplus lands (in the West-Donlands) that the province intends to sell, developers anticipate paying less for these lands due to the developments being used for affordable housing and the city intends to waive the tax levies associated with the property, which would amount to just under $28M. Of the first phase of development (approx. 600 units), 30% will be allocated for affordable housing; renting at 80% or below the average rental price in the city (about $1,600). The reality however is that the current waiting list for affordable housing is around 181,000, and critics like Kenneth Hale, director of legal service with the Advocacy Centre for Tenants Ontario, said that most families may not even be able to afford those units. Chris feels this isn't money well spent. We'd be curious as to your thoughts!

RESIDENTIAL TENANCIES ACT CHANGES

New guidelines to the Residential Tenancies Act continue to roll out. Among them are changes to how landlords deal with termination notice to tenants and how that might affect buyers of these properties. For any existing landlord, or purchasor of a property with an existing tenant, temination of occupancy is required after 60 days of being served an N12 (Notice of Termination) form; where the termination date can't precede the last day of a fixed term tenancy. However, the guideline states, After being given the notice, the tenant is allowed to terminate the tenancy at an earlier date by giving give the landlord ten days written notice. Effectively, this means that a propsective buyer may forfeit their last month's rent if provisions in the agreement of purchase and sale have not provided for it's payment on closing day. Fortunately, we've drafted such a clause at CP so clients can feel better about those situations. 

For more clarification on any of the above information, please get in touch! theglennteam@chestnutpark.com or 416-925-9191.

If you live in the GTA, or Canada, or even the U.S., you've likely noticed how booming the real estate market in Toronto has been over the last 2 years. With figures like a 22% rise in housing prices year over year, it's hard to gain some sanity amongst all the headlines. But what if you're still renting and aren't sure if you can or want to get into the market? What's  a realistic downpayment? Does purchasing a property even make sense at this stage and what should you be aware of? If you do nothing else, start with these 5 steps...

1 - Contact a Mortgage Broker

Before getting out into the world of available properties, it's important to get an understanding of what you can afford? A mortgage broker is one of the best ways to determine what your current level of income and credit rating can buy you in the market. The Glenn Team work with a fantastic group of brokers at MorCan Direct. Marcus Tzaferis and his team can secure excellent loans with rates that compete with, or undercut the banks and often in a fraction of the time. Like anything else, doing some comparison can help too, so if you've got the time to meet with someone at a bank or other brokerage, you should take that time. 

2 - Contact a Realtor

This may seem an obvious or self-serving piece of advice, but with a slew of new online options available to today's buyer, speaking with a real and experienced professional - in person - can answer a lot of questions much faster than google and message boards can. A great Realtor should be able to look at your budget and want list and give you honest advice about where you can live, in what type of property and what expectations you should have about those options. 

3 - Get Out There

How does a 900 square foot condo compare to one that's only 500 square feet? Do you really need 2 washrooms? What does a South facing view offer that a North doesn't? How does a 16 foot frontage compare to a 20 foot frontage? With the sheer diversity of housing types and styles, not to mention the less exciting but equally important mechanical distinctions; ie. gas vs. electric, LED vs. halogen, marble vs. caesarstone counters etc. it's important to start to see what's out there. Though the prices will certainly vary over time, the products and the particularities will remain relatively consistent and if you haven't been face to face with at least a few, how will you know when you find the one or not? Sure, you may have seen some great photos, but let me tell you from experience that photos can lie! Wide angle lenses do wonders in small spaces so do yourself a favour and get out there to see what the property is really all about.

4 - Do Your Own Research

Regardless of the qualifications of any professional you're dealing with, your individual style and preferences may not gel perfectly with your Realtor's so it's always a good idea to do some research in your own time. Which neighbourhoods might you prefer (if you're budget allows you to make that choice)? Are there particular amenities you want nearby? Do you know the difference between Georgian or Victorian? Do you even care what it looks like or just that it has a garage or a skylight in the bathroom?

If you have friends or family who've recently purchased, they may be able to give you some of their own advice about the buying process or might have a horror story to share that better informs your choices. The point being that nobody knows what you like or dislike as much as you and the more you know or are aware of, the better the position you'll be in when seeing properties, or asking questions of your Realtor.

5 - Be Prepared to Compromise

So you've just seen your 10th property and are convinced that this is the one... with the exception of that horrible bathroom! Don't fret! Though every design and real estate show will have you believe that houses all come renovated and ready to move in, there was once a time when people purchased property as a long term investment and were prepared to make concessions for the things they could fix over time. Though the pace of the current market can work well for a property-flipper, a sound foundation and (as boring as it may seem) well installed plumbing and electrical can be just as important as the lighting fixtures. And with styles changing as quickly as the seasons, will today's modern masterpiece be as popular in 5 years when you're considering moving into something else? Plans change and so do markets, and if you're not prepared to make some compromises, you could miss out on a fantastic property.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Remember that like a good book, any property is more than just what's on the surface, so put a great team together, get prepared with as much research as possible, get out there and finally achieve that dream of becoming a home owner!

If you've got questions, we'd love to help answer them! Contact Susan or Jeremy today. 416-925-9191